Shelf Life

A bit more from Edwin Newman on Polls.  Every day when I turn on the TV, almost the first thing I hear is:
The Rasmussen Poll.....The Gallup Poll.....The Zogby Poll.... The Fox News Poll.....the Candidate's internal Poll...... ad nauseam.

Newman hits the nail on the head, again, from his book, I Must Say.   He wrote this in October of 1984, prior to the November election. Some "genius in the public opinion polling business" came up with the term "shelf life." Experts had predicted Fritz Mondale to be a sure thing, according to The Polls.  When he wasn't, and was shooed out, they explained authoritatively why that happened - in spite of the Polls.

Pollsters, Newman continues, like to think that there is something "scientific" about what they do. They came up with the explanation that Polls have a "shelf life," like a commodity in the stores !?!  They claimed that Polls were accurate and reflected the views of the electorate; but not for as long as they had thought. Voters changed their minds quickly. Shelf life was shorter than they believed. The change might come in weeks, days or hours. It wasn't the Polls' fault. It was the voters' fault.

So, why pay attention to Polls? One may think the information is accurate and finds that it becomes misinformation in the twinkling of an eye. But, the Polls, have (and in some cases have been skewed in one direction or another) set the course for one candidate over another. Candidates can't be flustered by all this, since they have their own internal polling. They contribute to the quirkiness of Polls.

In the words of Edwin Newman, "Why, it may be asked, do news organizations place so much emphasis on polls? Their semiscientific aura, of course, and because they've become part of the competition. And they're easy; when you can't think of anything else to do, take a poll; it is, by now, an instinctive reaction."

And, "Polling failures don't lead to less polling; they lead to more. The only remedy for all of this nonsense is for people to ignore it."

His Afterthought: "Much political reporting has been reduced to telling us what the pollsters say. On election night, you might get the impression that the elections are held almost entirely to see whether the polls were right."

                                Twenty-seven years later there are more Polls than ever.

11/4/11